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Japan: Firm economic activity on reconstruction investment

Global & Regional Focus Notes

01 Νοεμβρίου 2011
• Production and export activity has recovered since the March disaster. We expect the sharp economic rebound to peak in Q3 and recede to a more sustainable track thereafter. Reconstruction is anticipated to boost GDP growth in 2012, partially insulating the economy from global weaknesses.
• Fragile economic conditions in major developed countries and lower growth in emerging markets have made us lower our GDP growth projection for 2012 down to 2.3% from 2.8% a quarter earlier. Risks to the Japanese economy stem mainly from weakness in global demand and a rising yen.
• The BoJ is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at least until the end of 2012. Further appreciation of the yen, most likely triggered by further erosion of global risk appetite and/or QE3 launched by the Fed, may prompt the BoJ to take additional action towards monetary easing.
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