• Economic sentiment has deteriorated sharply as the debt crisis escalated affecting core euro area members. • We have revised downwards our growth projections for this year (1.6%) and 2012 (0.8%) on the backdrop of tighter austerity and a less favorable global environment. • A technical recession is likely around the end of the year. In our view, the recession will most likely be shallow, resembling more a stagnation of growth than an outright recession.