• Global crude oil prices continue to remain elevated relative to historical levels. • Risks of a disruption in global oil supply have increased recently, due to growing international concerns over Iran’s nuclear program that have led the European Union to consider banning oil imports from Iran. • Data from the supply and demand side of the oil market continue to indicate upside risks to crude oil prices for 2012. • Lack of spare capacity and the low level of oil inventories is leaving the oil market vulnerable to higher than expected demand or to supply disappointments. • The sharp rise in breakeven oil prices indicates that oil-exporting countries will likely be more willing to cut production to maintain high oil prices, raising the risk of further price spikes.