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  • Trump in stronger position than at start of first term in 2017
  • Markets currently betting on higher US inflation and Fed interest rate path
  • Has proposed a more protectionist trade policy, closely associated with the “America First” agenda
  • Promised stricter immigration policy, to protect American jobs, reduce illegal immigration, and strengthen national security
  • President-elect has proposed a more expansionary fiscal policy; seen as a boost to GDP growth, while concerns about US long-term fiscal sustainability might intensify
  • Wants European countries to take on more responsibility for Ukraine defence, raise their own defence spending
  • Rollback of environmental regulation could lead to more oil and gas production