Main study points:
- 2022 will be the first year since 2009 that new gross fixed investment will exceed depreciation, leading to an increase of the capital stock. Furthermore, an all-time high in Foreign Direct Investment was recorded in 2021 (€5.4 billion or 2.9% of GDP) and even higher FDI are expected in 2022
- The magnitude of fixed investments still falls short of what is desired: in real terms it is still below half of its 2007 level, while its share to GDP falls almost 10ppts short of the Eurozone average. However, their sectoral structure has begun to change; for the first time, Greece is becoming a destination for the establishment of higher knowledge and value-added activities
- There cannot be sustainable income growth and economic convergence without the accumulation of capital, both physical and intangible, through investments. Any short-term increase in income through just income support, such as the one which occurred during the pandemic and the energy crisis, if not accompanied by an expansion in investment, will prove to be unsustainable
- External deficits remain a structural characteristic of the Greek economy. The increase and quality upgrade of investments is a condition for controlling those deficits
- A long-term effort is needed: in order for the share of fixed investment over GDP to reach the Eurozone average, an average annual real increase of almost 8% is required until 2031
- Strategic framework: the Greek economy must set as its main goal the achievement of high and sustainable growth rates, i.e. without creating twin deficits, while simultaneously reducing GDP's dependence on private consumption and increasing the shares of exports and investments. In addition, its mix of specializations should, with appropriate policies, shift towards areas that (a) incorporate more knowledge and technology and (b) take into account changes in the external environment
- 5 Pillars of economic activities that mobilize investments and gradually change the growth model: (1) Infrastructure and real estate (2) Energy, green transition, (3) Telecommunications, digital upgrade, (4) Tourism, (5) Industry
- The study examines specific investment projects of more than €50mn each, for a total amount of €38.7bn. Depending on the assumptions, the investment projects under consideration can increase GDP between €47.2bn in ten years (at least 12.5 percentage points of GDP) and €91.3bn in twenty years. Significant multiplier effects will emerge, spilling over to SMEs and the rest of the economy. At least 419,000 people can be employed in these projects - and also to other projects that will benefit from them
The study is available in Greek.
